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TPMOVis: 基于时空注意力的交通预测可视分析与诊断系统

TPMOVis: A Traffic Prediction Visual Analysis and Diagnosis System Based on Spatiotemporal Attention

  • 摘要: 智能交通系统(ITS)是智慧城市的重要组成部分, 而交通流量预测作为其核心技术, 对于提升城市运行效率与实现可持续发展具有关键作用. 为提升预测精度, 近年来研究者广泛采用基于注意力机制的深度学习方法建模交通数据, 以更有效捕捉其复杂的时空依赖关系. 然而, 这类模型普遍存在可解释性不足的问题, 既限制了研究人员对模型行为的优化, 也影响了交通管理者对预测结果的信任. 为此, 本文提出一个面向基于注意力机制的交通流量预测模型的可视分析系统TPMOVis(Traffic Prediction Model Optimization Visual Analysis System) , 旨在提升模型的透明性、诊断能力与可信度. 该系统不仅支持对具有时空双重属性的交通数据及注意力权重进行直观展示, 还集成了误差分析与模型行为诊断功能, 帮助用户识别预测异常与模型关注偏差. 在此基础上, 系统提供多种交互方式, 支持用户基于诊断结果探索并调整模型关注区域, 从而进一步提升预测性能与可信度. 通过专家参与的三个案例研究与一项用户调查, 验证了TPMOVis在提升模型可解释性、诊断性和用户信任方面的有效性.

     

    Abstract: Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) are an essential component of smart cities, and traffic flow prediction, as a core technology, plays a vital role in enhancing urban operational efficiency and achieving sustainable development. To improve prediction accuracy, researchers have widely adopted deep learning methods based on attention mechanisms in recent years to model traffic data, aiming to more effectively capture the complex spatiotemporal dependencies. However, these models generally suffer from poor interpretability, which not only limits the optimization of model behavior by researchers but also affects the trust of traffic managers in the prediction results. To address this issue, this paper proposes TPMOVis (Traffic Prediction Model Optimization Visual Analysis System), a visual analysis system for attention-based traffic flow prediction models, designed to enhance model transparency, diagnostic capability, and credibility. The system not only supports intuitive visualization of traffic data with spatiotemporal attributes and attention weights but also integrates error analysis and model behavior diagnosis functions to help users identify prediction anomalies and model attention biases. Based on this, the system provides a variety of interactive methods, enabling users to explore and adjust the model's focus areas based on diagnostic results, thereby further improving prediction performance and credibility. Through three case studies involving experts and a user survey, the effectiveness of TPMOVis in enhancing model interpretability, diagnosability, and user trust has been verified.

     

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